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A Yemeni political researcher, Adel Dashila, believes that there are several obstacles that have caused this stagnation. It is represented by the Houthi group’s insistence on their demands. On the other hand, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia is trying to get out of the Yemeni impasse with minimal losses, while the Houthis want to pay salaries by sharing the wealth represented in oil and gas revenues, and other conditions.
Regarding the Omani mediation, Dashila believes that the Omani mediation is still moving with some international efforts, including the efforts of the UN envoy, which are still ongoing. He also pointed out that the regional conflict, which is currently worsening, may make the road to a political solution in Yemen more difficult.
He said: We realize that the Zionist entity is targeting the Palestinian areas at the moment, and there is a strong focus on military operations against our brothers in Gaza specifically.
He added, “There are changes in the regional scene that may have had an impact on the stagnation in the Omani mediation. In addition, the events in Palestine have changed the focus on what is happening in the Middle East. Interest in the Yemeni tragedy has decreased at the moment.”
Regarding the relationship between the fate of the war in Yemen and what these talks achieve, Dashila believes that the Yemeni scene is not yet ready for a fair and comprehensive political solution. He said: If some rapprochements are reached, they could be positively reflected on the Yemeni scene. This means that there may be a regional rapprochement, and there will be pressure on local forces to accept an agreement, but the local scene is not ready to enter into a fair and comprehensive political arrangement. We have recently seen the return of military operations in northwestern Marib, and the Houthis’ attempt to advance to the city of Marib, and therefore all options are still on the table.
Fighting is likely to return during the next phase if these talks reach an impasse. He further asked: But will the Arab coalition engage in military operations as before? I don’t expect that. Meaning to leave the door open to the Yemeni troops, and because of this the coalition can support the government forces with some military equipment, not to tip the scales of the war, but to create a balance between the two parties, which means that continuing in a state of discord and instability is nothing but a dilution of the Yemen issue and the country entering a dark tunnel that no one has. He can predict when he will come out of it.
